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The Challenges of the U.S.-China Trade Relationship
12 July 2018 | 12:30–14:00 | Room 505, Esther Lee Building, CUHK
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Speaker
Prof. Liugang Sheng
Moderator
Prof. Travis K. H. Ng
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Director, Trade and Development Programme, Economic Research Centre, HKIAPS
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, CUHK
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Organizers
Policy Research @ HKIAPS
Global China Research Programme, CUHK
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In the seminar, Prof. Sheng first explained how the U.S.-China trade relationship has developed over the past 20 years. He gave three reasons for the occurrence of the U.S.-China trade war: the rise of China’s economy, the impact of globalization on inequality, and the acceleration of American populism in the post-financial crisis era. This is proven by the increase in China’s GDP as a proportion of that of the U.S., from around 5% in 1991 to around 65% in 2017. Since 2012, China’s trade has exceeded that of the U.S. in value, and China has made large investments in research and development to enhance its technology.
After providing background on the U.S.-China trade war, Prof. Sheng quantified the impact of the trade war on both countries. U.S. president Donald Trump has approved the imposition of tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods. Prof. Sheng estimated that on China’s side, by industry, manufacturers of electronic appliances will suffer the largest part of the loss. By region, Jiangsu province will suffer the most. On the U.S. side, producers of oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, and the State of Louisiana, will be the major victims in the trade war. He recommends that China and the U.S. explore the establishment of a strategic competitive relationship. Protecting intellectual property and autonomous technological innovations are essential to maintaining competitiveness in manufacturing.
More than 50 scholars, researchers, students, and CUHK staff attended the seminar.
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